DHL Group boosts guidance on expectations for strong peak season

DHL Group revised upward its profit forecast for 2026, pointing to ongoing earnings strength at its express division and expectations of a “robust” peak shipping season that coincides with holiday sales.

The global logistics giant said Friday it now expects earnings before interest and taxes to exceed 7 billion euros (equivalent to $7.8 billion), topping its earlier outlook for $7.3 billion from core operations.

DHL Group ( XETRA: DHL ) also raised its full-year projection for free cash flow to $3.6 billion from $3.37 billion earlier. Capital expenditures are expected to rise to about $4 billion, up from about $3.4 billion to $3.7 billion as DHL invests in projects for further growth.

The company announced last week, for example, that it plans to invest $450 million to expand capabilities in Central and Eastern Europe by 2030. 

Why It Matters: DHL is one of the largest third-party logistics providers in the world and a barometer of market conditions.

Group EBIT during the third quarter reached $1.92 billion, up 16% year over year and above the consensus estimate by analysts. DHL Express led the way with adjusted operating profit increasing 49.5% to $1.16 billion on the strength of higher yield, continued cost efficiencies and a more disciplined approach towards accepting heavy airfreight, which commands higher rates, over lightweight shipments transported by the company’s in-house airline. Heavyweight air has been a point of emphasis for the company this year.  The tight air freight market also boosted results.

DHL Global Forwarding also performed well, generating EBIT of $292 million, up a third from the prior year, excluding small one-time effects in 2025. Earnings at DHL Supply Chain, the contract logistics unit, increased 7.9% to $337 million on an adjusted basis.

DHL eCommerce had adjusted operating profit of $56.2 million, down from $198 million in the third quarter of 2025. The prior year benefitted from a one-time $138.2 million gain.

Operating profit at Post & Parcel Germany declined 32% to $168.5 million.

Full third-quarter results are scheduled to be released on Nov. 5. Bank of America rates DHL stock as a buy.

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